Premier League - business as usual

One of the major talking points this season seems to be the number of defeats that the top teams are suffering, with the Premier League nerds using the statistic to defend the English top flight from the accusations of predictability which have dogged the division for years. These defeats are not just against fellow top teams: Liverpool have lost to Fuham, Sunderlandnil and bottom club (at the time of playing) Portsmouth, Man United have lost to Fulham and Burnley (and could it be argued that the Liverpool defeat was not against a top club considering the reds’ season so far?), Chelsea have lost to Wigan and Arsenal have lost to Sunderlandnil with no holiday equipment involved whatsoever.

First of all, the number of defeats at the top should be further scrutinised. At the moment, when thirteen of the clubs have played eighteen games and most of the rest have played seventeen, the five teams in European places (Chelsea, United, Arsenal, Villa, Spurs) have suffered 20 defeats. Compared to the last two seasons, when the top five teams suffered only 26 defeats all season, it seems high, but during the previous seven seasons (back to the start of the decade) the top five were beaten between 34 and 41 times, with the lowest of those figures only coming in the season when one team (Arsenal) unusually lost no matches at all.

Taking the recent “big four” as a yardstick (although why on Earth Liverpool should be counted when they have never won the PL and Chelsea, United and Arsenal have won all but one of the titles I have no idea), perhaps there is a more noticeable change. At this stage of the season they have lost a combined 19 matches, which compared to the last two seasons (17 and 15 in total) is obviously off the clock. However, again in the previous seven seasons the same teams lost between 25 and 34 games all season, so perhaps the figure is not too high yet.

The five teams with the fewest defeats – not necessarily the same as the previous two categories, and indeed they are Manchester City, Chelsea, Villa, Arsenal and United – have 17 defeats between them at this stage of the season. Again, in the last two seasons the five least defeated teams had 26 and 25 losses all season, but in the previous seven seasons back to the start of the decade they lost between 34 and 43 times in the whole season.

The partial conclusion here then must be that although the top teams are losing more than during the last two seasons, it is precisely those two seasons that should be considered the anomaly and not this season, which appears to be following the longer trend.

Now let’s look at the teams in the relegation zone. Does this mean then that with supposedly more points being dropped at the top there will be more pressure for those in the relegation fight? During the past nine seasons the three teams relegated at the end of the season have managed between 18 and 23 wins between them, with the lowest three figures coming in Derby County’s disastrous season and Sunderlandnil’s two nightmares – the norm has been between 21 and 23. In order to survive it was necessary to reach between 34 and 43 points (taking as the limit the 17th-placed team’s total plus one point, ignoring goal difference).

As it stands at the moment, the bottom three clubs (Bolton, West Ham and Portsmouth) have managed 11 wins between them, although last weekend the bottom three included Wolves, whose win catapulted them to twelfth and would have been the 12th win of the bottom three. If we extend their figures to the end of the season as an average, the bottom three will have 23 wins and 36 points will be the total to beat. So no difference there then.

Perhaps the only difference could be – there’s that word “could” again, about the only thing that makes the Premier League vaguely interesting – the number of points needed for a top five finish and European football. In the last nine seasons the fifth team have needed between 56 and 65 points to guarantee playing in Europe the following season (again, taking as the limit the 6th-placed team’s total plus one point, ignoring goal difference). This season it could be as high as 70 points.

However, at the end of the day most of the table will be exactly the same. Certainly Chelsea, United and Arsenal – winners of 16 out of 17 seasons – will be in the top three or four as always and the weakest teams will be relegated. Everyone will have pretty much the same number of points relative to their final position in the table. There will have been the odd surprising result – like every season, so no change there – but at the end of the day we all know what the outcome will be.

It will take more than Newcastle going down to make the Premier League less than totally predictable.