I decided to look at the last result between each of the teams taking part in the World Cup and imagine that they were the results this time out. The vast majority of these matches have happened during the last decade, and the rest within the previous couple of years. On very few occasions I have had to go back further, for example to the Denmark-Japan game in 1971 or to the Portugal-North Korea clash in 1966.
If the match has never been played, the tie has been decided according to current FIFA world ranking rather than recent results as the importance of the results depends on the opponents and the ranking reflects the long-term reality of each team.
After the first round all the ties have happened since 1999, with 8 of the 15 ties happening in the last four years. There is only one tie which has never been played, South Africa-South Korea, and again I have used the FIFA rankings to decide the game. I have also used FIFA’s list to decide drawn games, which happened on four occasions.
There are certainly no shocks in the first round, which is statistically to be expected, although unfortunate from the point of view of the neutral fan. After the first round anything can happen although there are few, if any, surprises. Portugal beat Spain, although in fairness to Portugal they have only conceded two goals in their last ten games and are unbeaten in twelve (Spain have conceded 7 goals in their last 6 games and lost to the USA in June). Some would say Argentina beating Germany is a surprise considering Argentina’s qualification campaign, but Germany are losing quite a few players to injury and Argentina do have the best player in the world.
As for the eventual winner – no surprises there. As for only picking the last result – Argentina haven’t beaten Brazil since 2005, six games ago. And as for England’s fate – I think you’re all expecting that one, aren’t you?
THE RESULTS FROM THE SECOND ROUND ONWARDS:
SECOND ROUND
SOUTH AFRICA – SOUTH KOREA X-X
ENGLAND – SERBIA 2-1
HOLLAND – PARAGUAY 0-0
BRAZIL – SWITZERLAND 2-1
ARGENTINA – FRANCE 2-0
GERMANY – USA 4-1
ITALY – DENMARK 0-0
SPAIN – PORTUGAL 0-1
QUARTER-FINALS
SOUTH KOREA – ENGLAND 1-1
HOLLAND – BRAZIL 2-2
ARGENTINA – GERMANY 1-0
ITALY – PORTUGAL 3-1
SEMI-FINALS
ENGLAND – BRAZIL 0-1
ARGENTINA – ITALY 2-1
FINAL
BRAZIL – ARGENTINA 3-1
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
4 comments:
Who are those amazing Portuguese defenders and midfielders that are going to stop Villa, Torres, Iniesta, Silva, Cesc and Xavi???
I think shocks ARE coming up in the first round... shocks concerning Camerun, Ivory Coast, France, Chile.... mark my words...
I don't rate Spain:
-Mourinho's Inter Milan showed how easy it is to stop Xavi if you don't believe the hype.
-As a season ticket holder at Atletico I joined tens of thousands of people every week groaning as Torres messed up again and again. True, he's been better at Liverpool, but in such a mediocre team he was bound to shine.
-Casillas is nowhere as good as he was in his early twenties...
...
-Fabregas is too selfish to ever be a successful team player - look at his personal awards against his team awards.
-Pujol is old and unfit.
-How on Earth did the likes of Ramos and Albiol ever make a national team?
I totally agree with your comment on the shocks (especially with hindsight!) but I also had a bet on Spain not making it out of the group stage - almost...
Post a Comment