I decided to look at the last result between each of the teams taking part in the World Cup and imagine that they were the results this time out. The vast majority of these matches have happened during the last decade, and the rest within the previous couple of years. On very few occasions I have had to go back further, for example to the Denmark-Japan game in 1971 or to the Portugal-North Korea clash in 1966.
If the match has never been played, the tie has been decided according to current FIFA world ranking rather than recent results as the importance of the results depends on the opponents and the ranking reflects the long-term reality of each team.
After the first round all the ties have happened since 1999, with 8 of the 15 ties happening in the last four years. There is only one tie which has never been played, South Africa-South Korea, and again I have used the FIFA rankings to decide the game. I have also used FIFA’s list to decide drawn games, which happened on four occasions.
There are certainly no shocks in the first round, which is statistically to be expected, although unfortunate from the point of view of the neutral fan. After the first round anything can happen although there are few, if any, surprises. Portugal beat Spain, although in fairness to Portugal they have only conceded two goals in their last ten games and are unbeaten in twelve (Spain have conceded 7 goals in their last 6 games and lost to the USA in June). Some would say Argentina beating Germany is a surprise considering Argentina’s qualification campaign, but Germany are losing quite a few players to injury and Argentina do have the best player in the world.
As for the eventual winner – no surprises there. As for only picking the last result – Argentina haven’t beaten Brazil since 2005, six games ago. And as for England’s fate – I think you’re all expecting that one, aren’t you?
THE RESULTS FROM THE SECOND ROUND ONWARDS:
SECOND ROUND
SOUTH AFRICA – SOUTH KOREA X-X
ENGLAND – SERBIA 2-1
HOLLAND – PARAGUAY 0-0
BRAZIL – SWITZERLAND 2-1
ARGENTINA – FRANCE 2-0
GERMANY – USA 4-1
ITALY – DENMARK 0-0
SPAIN – PORTUGAL 0-1
QUARTER-FINALS
SOUTH KOREA – ENGLAND 1-1
HOLLAND – BRAZIL 2-2
ARGENTINA – GERMANY 1-0
ITALY – PORTUGAL 3-1
SEMI-FINALS
ENGLAND – BRAZIL 0-1
ARGENTINA – ITALY 2-1
FINAL
BRAZIL – ARGENTINA 3-1
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Putting your foot in the can of worms
The unfortunate comments attributed to Lord Triesman, chairman of the FA and head of the 2018 World Cup bid, have opened up a can of worms which the football world has long seemed determined to keep closed. It has still not actually been confirmed whether he said that the Spanish would try and bribe referees at the World Cup with the help of the Russians, but his decision to stand down as chairman of the bid committee may be interpreted not only as an obliged political manoeuvre but also as an admission of guilt.
There are three possibilities – that Lord Triesman made the comments as a throwaway observation, in which case his brain works in truly mysterious ways; that he voiced suspicions that were based on absolutely no evidence, in which case the man is a fool; or that he has evidence to support this serious allegation, in which case the usual powers in the game will silence him faster than you can say “match-fixing”.
Modern football is under constant suspicion of cheating. Declan HiIl’s book “The Fix” lays out in great detail the influence that betting syndicates exert on the modern game; the book was largely ignored in the media, even though it has been demonstrated that the leagues in Portugal, Germany, Brazil and the United States have been affected by bought referees during the last decade. UEFA has been obliged to investigate more than forty European fixtures in the last couple of seasons; all the matches turned out to be in the “poorer” (less influential) football countries of Eastern Europe, even though it has been patently obvious to fans that Barcelona have continually benefitted from refereeing “mistakes” in the Champions’ League. And then there’s Italy.
World Cups are never exempt from controversy either – the tournaments in 1930, 1954, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006 (eleven out of eighteen tournaments) have all been sullied by questionable sportsmanship and refereeing.
So based on the evidence it is possible that attempts will be made to influence the outcome of games in this summer’s tournament. But what about the two countries allegedly mentioned by Lord Triesman?
Russia is widely recognised as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Last year even Russia’s interior minister admitted that “parts of the police had become criminal businesses”, while the court system is under constant scrutiny from Amnesty International. Extortion by corrupt officials is forcing western companies out of the country, while the government admits that bribes in Russian universities have reached a billion dollars a year. Russian football has suddenly become one of the richest leagues in the world, with the new oligarchs pouring money into the game for their own individual reasons. Estimates as to the level of corruption in the world of Russian football leave one thing perfectly clear – there is no doubt that the league is as riddled with cheating as the rest of the country.
On the surface Spain seems to enjoy a much better reputation as a country and as a people; closer scrutiny, however, suggests an alternative reality. The Spanish have a very different idea about what constitutes cheating from the accepted idea in other countries – cheating in university and public employment exams is considered an art form, tax evasion is a way of life, mass political fraud and political influence are rife in every region of the country and in every party and property development has long been a quick way to make a dishonest buck, and yet all those things are considered perfectly acceptable (with the only exception of when the political party is the one you don’t support).
In terms of football, every year for the past few years the RFEF has ordered new investigations into match-fixing. In 2009 a wholesale investigation was started after suspicions arose that Spanish players were betting on matches. The Málaga-Tenerife game which clinched Málaga’s promotion to La Liga in June 2008 was called into question after the Tenerife player Jesuli was accused of throwing the match. The player threatened to sue, but interestingly it was only because a telephone conversation had been recorded, not because the accusation may have been false. The Athletic-Levante game which guaranteed that never-relegated Bilbao would not be sent down on the final day of the 2006-07 season was also under suspicion because of evidence that Levante had thrown the game.
But by far the most unsavoury part of Spanish football is what they call “primas a terceros”, or incentive payments to third parties. Everybody, from the players and managers to the media and the government, admits that it happens, and in ever-increasing quantities. At the end of each season undisclosed and undeclared amounts of money are offered by teams to other teams as an added incentive to achieve a result that would benefit more than one club. It happens in every division and at either end of each one and is now an accepted part of the season. The fans – and more worryingly the authorities – treat the subject with the same lax attitude as they would tax evasion or land fraud and accordingly it is now inherent in the Spanish game.
It is unclear whether Lord Triesman has concrete evidence to accuse the Spanish and the Russians of any wrong-doing; however, it must be said that if the shadow of suspicion were to fall over any country, both Spain and Russia would be high on the list of suspects. Unfortunately, in the case of such influential countries (ie rich within the football world) football’s governing bodies will turn a blind eye and keep the can of worms firmly closed.
There are three possibilities – that Lord Triesman made the comments as a throwaway observation, in which case his brain works in truly mysterious ways; that he voiced suspicions that were based on absolutely no evidence, in which case the man is a fool; or that he has evidence to support this serious allegation, in which case the usual powers in the game will silence him faster than you can say “match-fixing”.
Modern football is under constant suspicion of cheating. Declan HiIl’s book “The Fix” lays out in great detail the influence that betting syndicates exert on the modern game; the book was largely ignored in the media, even though it has been demonstrated that the leagues in Portugal, Germany, Brazil and the United States have been affected by bought referees during the last decade. UEFA has been obliged to investigate more than forty European fixtures in the last couple of seasons; all the matches turned out to be in the “poorer” (less influential) football countries of Eastern Europe, even though it has been patently obvious to fans that Barcelona have continually benefitted from refereeing “mistakes” in the Champions’ League. And then there’s Italy.
World Cups are never exempt from controversy either – the tournaments in 1930, 1954, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006 (eleven out of eighteen tournaments) have all been sullied by questionable sportsmanship and refereeing.
So based on the evidence it is possible that attempts will be made to influence the outcome of games in this summer’s tournament. But what about the two countries allegedly mentioned by Lord Triesman?
Russia is widely recognised as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Last year even Russia’s interior minister admitted that “parts of the police had become criminal businesses”, while the court system is under constant scrutiny from Amnesty International. Extortion by corrupt officials is forcing western companies out of the country, while the government admits that bribes in Russian universities have reached a billion dollars a year. Russian football has suddenly become one of the richest leagues in the world, with the new oligarchs pouring money into the game for their own individual reasons. Estimates as to the level of corruption in the world of Russian football leave one thing perfectly clear – there is no doubt that the league is as riddled with cheating as the rest of the country.
On the surface Spain seems to enjoy a much better reputation as a country and as a people; closer scrutiny, however, suggests an alternative reality. The Spanish have a very different idea about what constitutes cheating from the accepted idea in other countries – cheating in university and public employment exams is considered an art form, tax evasion is a way of life, mass political fraud and political influence are rife in every region of the country and in every party and property development has long been a quick way to make a dishonest buck, and yet all those things are considered perfectly acceptable (with the only exception of when the political party is the one you don’t support).
In terms of football, every year for the past few years the RFEF has ordered new investigations into match-fixing. In 2009 a wholesale investigation was started after suspicions arose that Spanish players were betting on matches. The Málaga-Tenerife game which clinched Málaga’s promotion to La Liga in June 2008 was called into question after the Tenerife player Jesuli was accused of throwing the match. The player threatened to sue, but interestingly it was only because a telephone conversation had been recorded, not because the accusation may have been false. The Athletic-Levante game which guaranteed that never-relegated Bilbao would not be sent down on the final day of the 2006-07 season was also under suspicion because of evidence that Levante had thrown the game.
But by far the most unsavoury part of Spanish football is what they call “primas a terceros”, or incentive payments to third parties. Everybody, from the players and managers to the media and the government, admits that it happens, and in ever-increasing quantities. At the end of each season undisclosed and undeclared amounts of money are offered by teams to other teams as an added incentive to achieve a result that would benefit more than one club. It happens in every division and at either end of each one and is now an accepted part of the season. The fans – and more worryingly the authorities – treat the subject with the same lax attitude as they would tax evasion or land fraud and accordingly it is now inherent in the Spanish game.
It is unclear whether Lord Triesman has concrete evidence to accuse the Spanish and the Russians of any wrong-doing; however, it must be said that if the shadow of suspicion were to fall over any country, both Spain and Russia would be high on the list of suspects. Unfortunately, in the case of such influential countries (ie rich within the football world) football’s governing bodies will turn a blind eye and keep the can of worms firmly closed.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
The popularity contest
Tonight's Europa League final in Hamburg features two teams who don't see final action very often; Fulham's last final was the FA Cup in 1975, while Atlético also played in a domestic cup final back in 1996. Indeed, Fulham have never played in a major European final, and while Atlético have played in four European finals the last one was in 1986. As a result most football fans will find it refreshing that tonight's game doesn't feature the usual suspects of European football.
However tonight's game will stand out for much more than that. Typically, any club that reaches a final will enjoy as much animosity as support as their rivals cheer on the opposition. Manchester United fans will certainly not have supported Liverpool in their two Champions' League finals this decade, and by the same token Scousers will have delighted at Barcelona's win last year.
But you would be hard pushed to find any English fans who won't get behind the modest London club tonight; even Chelsea, Fulham's closest rivals, would be delighted for Roy Hodgson's men. At the same time the whole of Spain will be rooting for Atlético. Even Real Madrid fans? As a friend of mine says, "Atlético aren't Real Madrid's rivals, they're the "pupas"; Barcelona are the only rivals in Spain". And most Spanish people recognise that Atlético's fans are the best in Spain.
Whoever wins tonight, a whole country will be delighted. I wonder if the same could have been said of Liverpool and Hamburg?
However tonight's game will stand out for much more than that. Typically, any club that reaches a final will enjoy as much animosity as support as their rivals cheer on the opposition. Manchester United fans will certainly not have supported Liverpool in their two Champions' League finals this decade, and by the same token Scousers will have delighted at Barcelona's win last year.
But you would be hard pushed to find any English fans who won't get behind the modest London club tonight; even Chelsea, Fulham's closest rivals, would be delighted for Roy Hodgson's men. At the same time the whole of Spain will be rooting for Atlético. Even Real Madrid fans? As a friend of mine says, "Atlético aren't Real Madrid's rivals, they're the "pupas"; Barcelona are the only rivals in Spain". And most Spanish people recognise that Atlético's fans are the best in Spain.
Whoever wins tonight, a whole country will be delighted. I wonder if the same could have been said of Liverpool and Hamburg?
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